Welcome to yet another weekly market forecast. These forecasts are published every monday with the aim of sharing my market outlook for the week ahead. Before  I share my forecast, we’ll first look at some of the active trades I had in the last weekly forecast and we’ll also look at some of the active trades I have as of December 4th 2023. Without further ado, let’s get into it.

Disclaimer

While I’ll provide valuable forex trading insight, the information in this video should not be considered as financial advice. It’s essential to do your research, and practice due diligence before making any investment decisions.

Last Week's Forex Forecast Update

Last week I had two active trades, one on Gold (XAUUSD) and the other on USOIL. (Click Here to See the Last Market Forecast For Reference Purposes). Of the two trades, the USOIL trade is still active, I’m currently floating 2% in profits while the Gold trade got to the target price giving  me over 2000 pips or a return of 4%. As for the 2 other trade ideas  I shared; AUDJPY and GBPJPY, the market conditions to trigger my entry have not yet happened. I’m still patiently waiting for the price to trade to my levels to consider taking the entries.

Gold (XAUUSD) Trade Recap

  • Trade Duration: 2 Months
  • Risk : Reward: 4
  • Outcome: Hit TP

USOIL Trade Update

  • Trade Status: Active
  • Trade Duration: 11 Days

  • Risk : Reward: 3.4

  • Floating Profit: 2%

Technical Analysis - Trade Ideas

Now let’s look at the week ahead. The two trades I shared in the previous forecast are still valid until the current market structure is violated. Therefore, this week’s trade ideas will be an addition to last week’s  forecast ideas. (Last Week Forecast). If you’d also like to be notified when any of the ideas I share are violated, join  my public discord server where I share updates as soon as I possibly can. (Link to Discord).

Dec 4th - 8th Forecast

1. CHFJPY

CHFJPY Trade Forecast

Trade Details

  • Position: Buy
  • Timeframe: H4
  • Risk : Reward: 4.2

Confluences

  • Market in an uptrend
  • Market must take longer time in the correction phase than in impulse phase
  • Risk entry at a demand zone which cause a clear break of market structure
  • Demand zone also happens to be in the swing low (Support)

2. EURNZD

Trade Details

  • Position: Buy
  • Timeframe: Daily
  • Risk : Reward: 4.83
EURNZD Trade Forecast

Confluences

  • Market in an uptrend
  • Market took longer time in the correction phase than in impulse phase
  • Risk entry at a demand zone which cause a clear break of market structure
  • Demand zone also happens to be in the swing low (Support)

Fundamental Analysis

In this section, I’m going to highlight the major upcoming macro events and data release in the coming week. These are the events with the highest probability to have a high impact in the respective currencies. To access the other low or medium impact news, you need to visit any forex events calendar. I’d recommend you use Forex Factory as they also provide insights on how you’re supposed to interpret these events and data release to make informed trading decisions.

Major Upcoming Events & Data Releases

 Monday: 4th Dec 2023

  • CHF: CPI (Measure of inflation in the economy).

Tuesday: 5th Dec 2023

  • AUD: RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) interest rate statement.

Wednesday: 6th Dec 2023

  • GBP: BOE (Bank of England) governor speech (Policy maker’s sentiment about the economy).
  • CAD: BOC (Bank of Canada) interest rate statement.

Friday: 8th Dec 2023

  • USD: NFP (Non farm Payroll) – Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry

Being aware of the upcoming events is important but not quite enough to qualify as comprehensive fundamental analysis. There are other factors you should consider to improve your research. These factors include:

  • Geo political situations:- e.g the current Israel-Palestine war
  • Interest rate differentials and central banks rate decisions
  • Economic growth
  • Inflation data
  • Employment data
  • Housing data
  • Policy makers sentiment about the economy 
  • etc. 

Risk Management

Risk management is essential for forex traders, as the market can be very volatile. Before placing a trade you should know exactly how much money you’re risking and what your exit price will be both when you’re right or wrong. To determine the exact lot size to use in your trades, I recommend checking out our position size calculator. 

Some of the key risk management techniques include:

  • Using stop-loss orders:  A stop-loss order is an order to sell a currency if it falls below a certain price. This can help to limit your losses if the market moves against you.
  • Diversifying your portfolio: Diversifying your portfolio by trading multiple currencies can help to reduce your overall risk.
  • Using margin carefully: Margin is a form of leverage that allows you to trade more than you have in your account. However, margin can also magnify your losses.

Trading Journal

Keeping a trading journal is a great way to track your progress and identify areas where you can improve your trading. Click here to visit my trading journal to see my past performance. You can use my journal to judge whether my trading strategy can fit into your personality or not depending on your risk appetite and preference 

Your trading journal should include but not limited to the following information:

  • The date and time of each trade
  • The currency pair traded
  • The price at which the trade was entered and exited
  • The profit or loss on the trade
  • Any observations you have about the trade

Conclusion

Forex trading can be a profitable way to invest, but it is also a risky activity. It is important to understand the risks involved before you start trading, and to develop a sound risk management plan.

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